Evaluation of an uncertainty reduction methodology based on Iterative Sensitivity Analysis (ISA) applied to naturally fractured reservoirs
Luis Augusto Nagasaki Costa, Celio Maschio, Denis Jose Schiozer
ARTIGO
Inglês
Agradecimentos: This work was conducted with the support of Energi Simulation and Petrobras within the ANP R&D tax as "commitment to research and development investments". The authors are grateful for the support of the Center of Petroleum Studies (CEPETRO-UNICAMP/Brazil), the Department of Energy...
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Agradecimentos: This work was conducted with the support of Energi Simulation and Petrobras within the ANP R&D tax as "commitment to research and development investments". The authors are grateful for the support of the Center of Petroleum Studies (CEPETRO-UNICAMP/Brazil), the Department of Energy (DE-FEM-UNICAMP/Brazil) and Research Group in Reservoir Simulation and Management (UNISIM-UNICAMP/Brazil). In addition, special thanks to CMG and Schlumberger for software licenses
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History matching for naturally fractured reservoirs is challenging because of the complexity of flow behavior in the fracture-matrix combination. Calibrating these models in a history-matching procedure normally requires integration with geostatistical techniques (Big Loop, where the history...
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History matching for naturally fractured reservoirs is challenging because of the complexity of flow behavior in the fracture-matrix combination. Calibrating these models in a history-matching procedure normally requires integration with geostatistical techniques (Big Loop, where the history matching is integrated to reservoir modeling) for proper model characterization. In problems involving complex reservoir models, it is common to apply techniques such as sensitivity analysis to evaluate and identify most influential attributes to focus the efforts on what most impact the response. Conventional Sensitivity Analysis (CSA), in which a subset of attributes is fixed at a unique value, may over-reduce the search space so that it might not be properly explored. An alternative is an Iterative Sensitivity Analysis (ISA), in which CSA is applied multiple times throughout the iterations. ISA follows three main steps: (a) CSA identifies Group i of influential attributes (i = 1, 2, 3, ... , n); (b) reduce uncertainty of Group i, with other attributes with fixed values; and (c) return to step (a) and repeat the process. Conducting CSA multiple times allows the identification of influential attributes hidden by the high uncertainty of the most influential attributes. In this work, we assess three methods: Method 1 - ISA, Method 2 - CSA, and Method 3 - without sensitivity analysis, i.e., varying all uncertain attributes (larger searching space). Results showed that the number of simulation runs for Method 1 dropped 24% compared to Method 3 and 12% to Method 2 to reach a similar matching quality of acceptable models. In other words, Method 1 reached a similar quality of results with fewer simulations. Therefore, ISA can perform as good as CSA demanding fewer simulations. All three methods identified the same five most influential attributes of the initial 18. Even with many uncertain attributes, only a small percentage is responsible for most of the variability of responses. Also, their identification is essential for efficient history matching. For the case presented in this work, few fracture attributes were responsible for most of the variability of the responses.
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Aberto
Evaluation of an uncertainty reduction methodology based on Iterative Sensitivity Analysis (ISA) applied to naturally fractured reservoirs
Luis Augusto Nagasaki Costa, Celio Maschio, Denis Jose Schiozer
Evaluation of an uncertainty reduction methodology based on Iterative Sensitivity Analysis (ISA) applied to naturally fractured reservoirs
Luis Augusto Nagasaki Costa, Celio Maschio, Denis Jose Schiozer
Fontes
Oil & gas science & technology: revue de l'Institut Français du Petrole (Fonte avulsa) |