Agradecimentos: British Petroleum (BP)

Given that sustainability of Brazilian ethanol is intrinsically associated with the effects of sugarcane expansion on land use changes, this paper aims to assess sugarcane land use using data such as sugarcane yield, water requirements, land expansion and production costs under rainfed and irrigated...

Given that sustainability of Brazilian ethanol is intrinsically associated with the effects of sugarcane expansion on land use changes, this paper aims to assess sugarcane land use using data such as sugarcane yield, water requirements, land expansion and production costs under rainfed and irrigated management. The Paranaiba basin was selected as a case study because of recent large scale expansion of sugarcane. Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) methodology was used to identify sugarcane dynamics during four crop seasons. Crop water requirements, through the water footprint methodology, cane yield, and production costs were estimated by combining the Agroecological Zone Model and CanaSoft. Results show that most sugarcane was spatially distributed in the central area of the basin, with less potential for yield gain through irrigation. This region has significant water availability issues. A 54% increase in sugarcane area (617,000-947,000 ha) was identified, mostly from the central region to the west, and to a lesser extent to the southeast. Both expansion areas represent improved edaphoclimatic (soil and climatic) conditions, hence, higher yields, lower water footprint, and lower production costs under rainfed and irrigated managements. Furthermore, there are less subbasins with water quantity problems and almost none with water quality or both quantity and quality concerns, which suggests greater possibilities for accessing water for irrigation; however, there is an environmental cost associated with this practice on average, 13 m(3) Mg-1 (Mega gram, 10(6) g) of blue water footprint. In the context of this highly water-intensive crop, sugarcane expansion in the Parangba basin in areas of improved soil and climatic conditions enhances the sustainability of ethanol production in Brazil

CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO - CNPQ

407258/2013-2; 404245/2013-7

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