Agradecimentos: Thanks to UNICAMP Universidade Estadual de Campinas, and the Mechanical Engineering Faculty staff for the support. Thanks to the CNPq, the Brazilian National Council of Scientific and Technologic Development for the economical support, to OLADE for allowing use their international database, and to Prof. Carlos Pérez Silva from Carabobo University (Venezuela) Ver menos

This study presents a prospective analysis on the impacts of recent efficient energy policies application in Venezuela, integrating both oil production and electricity supply to assess energy resources balance in a quantitative manner. A special focus is given to main fossil fuels used in the electric power industry; natural gas, diesel oil and fuel oil. Four scenarios were proposed, ranging from a low-economy-growth/low-efficiency scenario to an optimist high-economy-growth/high-efficiency scenario. Efficiency effects are more notorious for high-economy-growth case, fuel consumption for electricity generation reduces 38% for natural gas, 12% for diesel and 29% for fuel oil, in the established time period. Deficits in oil and gas Venezuelan production were also determined, deficits are highly affected by economical forecasting, and by fuel smuggling in Venezuelan borders. Results showed the high importance of energy efficiency policies development for Venezuela, in order to reduce fossil fuel domestic consumption to allocate them in a more profitable market Ver menos